Predictive Analytics in Public Safety

There has been a recent movement to apply business techniques to law enforcement and intelligence. According to an article in the July/August 2006 edition of IT Pro, analysts can actually apply specific statistical algorithms to historical data to predict crime in densely populated cities, such as NYC. Unfortunately, predicting low frequency events such as crime often has poor overall accuracy. It can however, be useful in determing the distribution of force deployment. Therefore advanced data mining and predictive analytics are now being used to create statistical models to determine where to deploy enforcement. The following figure illustrates an example of this type of application:



It's amazing to me how accurately we can predict outcomes using data mining. At what point do you think we are just writing algorithms to try to predict the unknown to simply make us feel safer? Do we try to explain the future using a mathematical function so that we can simply say we are cracking down on crime or can we really use statistical models (such as the figure above) to improve public safety in areas such as NYC where location really matters?

Knowledge Management in Public Safety

I just read an article about the use of advanced technology in public safety in Nassau County, NY. Every car that comes into the village has its drivers license scanned. The increased use of technology in its security surveillance is linked to the police department's transition to an entirely paperless system. The article goes on to explain that officers are equipped with handheld devices that can scan license plates and instantly receive information pertaining to warrants. The Nassau County Police Department is eager to share its technology with neighboring departments. It can communicate with any other department that uses the same software. The police in Long Beach and Mamaroneck are the first to adapt to the new software.

So where am I going with this? I think the technology has the potential to provide useful information to police in neighborhoods of NYC that require constant surveillance. In Los Angeles, the police are familiar with the local gangs (so familiar that they know each member's name, date of initiation, and family affiliations). Understanding the community (and trying to relate to the members to gain their trust) helps alleviate problems in the neighborhood. This is particularly important in the neighborhood surrounding my campus (USC). I'm sure this same type of community understanding and awareness exists in NYC and can be improved with the use of handheld high-tech devices. Police can receive up-to-date information about gang members and easily store information about their connections and affiliations. Obviously there is some question of privacy here, but it at least has the potential to explore the idea of using handheld devices as a form of knowledge management in public safety.

Vantage Point

I've learned in my entrepreneurship classes that often times the best inventions come from completely "off the walls" ideas that seem like they are completely impossible to either build or implement. These imaginary products often give way to actually feasible ideas.

Last night I saw the movie "Vantage Point" (although I'm not going to discuss the movie in much detail, if you plan on seeing it, you may not want to continue reading) and an almost completely "off the walls" piece of technology in the movie gave me an idea for an implementation of technology to improve NYC's public safety.

Although used by terrorists, a piece of technology appeared in the movie that could be used on the safety enforcement to improve communication and timely response in the event of an emergency. This piece of technology was similar to a Palm Pilot but was able to carry through actions of other pieces of equipment similar to a remote control. For example, the hand held device was used to turn on a fan hundreds of yards away in addition to its typical text messaging capabilities. I'm thinking that public officials could have devices such as this one that could perform activities that could be necessary in the event of a terrorist attack or natural disaster. The device could manipulate traffic signal lights to clear way for NYPD or NYFD or could be used as a "chat room" for multiple officials from different departments to communicate. It could also have auto-set buttons working together with a GPS chip that could be activated if back up was required. This would enable back up (either police or more fire trucks/ambulances) to be quickly called for without having to stop what they are doing. I think such a hand held device has a lot of potential for use in public safety.

*In case you haven't seen the movie, still read this, and want to see it, yes I recommend it! It got really bad reviews and I would have to say that the acting/writing at the end got really bad, but I think the concept was really cool (just poorly executed) and the use of the technology was pretty cool too. Trailer Link

Notify NYC

Similar to the emergency alert system recently implemented by USC, NYC mayor Bloomberg announced the launch of a program called Notify NYC this past December. The program allows any interested individual to sign up to receive information via email, text messages, and recorded phone calls in the unfortunate event of an emergency. There are two types of alerts: those of a time sensitive nature and those that serve as informational.

I think this technology has great potential and can be used in a greater application to reach a wider group of people in case of an emergency. This program relies on people signing up--and for whatever reason people sometimes are reluctant to sign up for services regardless of the program's potential for safety. Wireless service providers can team up with the New York City government to make the service a program offered directly through the cell phone contract. Ideally, the text messages and voice messages would be offered free of charge. This would definitely increase the number of people who would receive the emergency updates.

I'm going to continue researching this program and write more soon. In the meantime, you can read more about the program here

Why are we always Reactive?

After September 11, NYC rushed to create a wireless public safety network. In 2006, the NYC government finally signed a $500 million contract with Northrop Grumman to provide this service. It is an example of how this country is prone to taking reactive, rather than proactive measures, in response to terrorism and natural disasters. Here are a few other examples of reactive behavior:

• In 2006, TSA banned airline passengers from carrying on board liquids over 3 ounces
• Immediately after 9/11, airline security required the cockpit door to always be secured--did we really need a hijacker to prove that this was necessary?
• The country is just now trying to secure our ports
• Formation of the Department of Homeland Security

Although I think it is extremely important to set up a wireless public safety network that allows the NYPD, NYFD, Transportation Department, and Office of Emergency Management high speed network capabilities to improve communication, why didn't anyone think of this before? All of these departments are interrelated and share common duties. Did the country need a wake up call of this size to implement such a communication system? We can conduct video conferences with ten executives from ten different countries, but we couldn't communicate between a few departments residing in the same city until we realized it might be necessary?

IT Consulting firms are now taking a proactive approach in emergency preparedness. They offer services that leave businesses better prepared in case of an emergency--this means anywhere from remote backups to complete internal architecture blueprint restructuring. NYC needs to follow this lead and take a proactive step towards securing its city. Finish the implementation of the wireless public safety network and then utilize resources to look for creative solutions to problems that have not already happened. The discovery phase of this proactive approach will not only improve the security of the city, but it will further advance technology and lead way to new technology that can be used in other applications.

In my next few blog postings, I will illustrate fictional scenarios and possible solutions that employ advanced technology.

On a side note...

On a side note, I would like to preface this blog with a personal story...

Last summer I lived in New York City while I completed an internship. On July 18, a steam pipe exploded near Grand Central Station shortly before I left my office. I was about to walk to the elevators, when my manager stopped me and said he had just heard that a building next to our firm's office (we were currently at a client site about 13 blocks north and 2 avenues west) had just exploded. With no other information, especially in a city with its unfortunate past, we all assumed the worst: terrorism. I proceeded downstairs unsure of what to do. I walked outside and called my dad, who was on the other side of the country in California. For at least ten minutes, my phone could not call out. Everyone around me appeared to be on their phones. Fortunately I finally reached my dad and he immediately turned on the tv but could not find out any information. Within seconds of walking outside, I overheard hundreds of cell phone conversations each with a different version of the story. Who do you believe?

"A building just collapsed and people are running!"

That was all I had to hear. Typically, I would take the subway home but with the thought of terrorism on my mind I decided I would walk home (about 40 blocks and a few avenues). All around me I could see people in a panic. I decided to walk towards the site of the explosion (although looking back now that was such an idiotic thing to do, given the circumstances. It's funny because I never understood why people just stand around and watch when they could be putting their lives in danger and yet I was one of those bystanders). I passed people covered in soot and even some people who appeared to be bleeding. During this long trek home, I never once got off the phone with my dad, for fear of not being able to call back, as well as hoping he would find out the truth.

It was at least an hour before any news site or tv station on the west coast had any information about what had really happened. In actuality, a building did not explode. A building did not collapse (although people were really running). And most importantly, it was not an act of terrorism. However, for at least an hour, millions of people feared for their lives unsure of the implications. Technology could have eased everyone's pain. First of all, wireless networks could have been improved to allow more people to dial out (especially during a crisis situation). Second, a public announcement distributed through multiple technology enabled channels could have eased everyone's concerns. Public officials knew almost immediately that it was a steam pipe and not a building. And while they could not instantaneously rule out terrorism, it is much easier to justify a steam pip explosion as a natural disaster than as an act of terrorism.

As someone who is moving to NYC and has three siblings who lived in NYC during 9/11, I would very much like to see technology improve in situations such as these. My postings will very likely be influenced by this personal story and will reflect my feelings and emotions that I experienced on July 18, 2007 because it is the closest act of terrorism I have to relate to.

If you walked by THIS and had no idea what was going on, what would you think had happened???

Meet Me!

My name is Ariel Saldin and I am currently a senior at the University of Southern California, majoring in Business Information Systems. Originally from Long Island, NY, I plan to move to New York City upon graduation in May. As a product of an electrical engineer and a computer programmer, I have grown up with a deep interest in technology and its role in various environments. I have witnessed the birth of multiple entrepreneurial startups in my family related to satellite communication devices, database programming consulting, home theater entertainment systems, and most recently a private audiology practice focused on hearing aid screening and sales.


Although I am interested in all of these fields, I myself am most interested in the role of technology in my future city of residency, New York City. Therefore, in this blog in the weeks to come, I plan to discuss the role of technology in public safety (more specifically related to disaster awareness and recovery) in New York City. I will briefly discuss the evolution of technology since 9/11, but will focus on recent developments in technology that have created a safer and more prepared city. Additionally using trade publications and relevant tech sites as secondary sources, I will highlight new technologies that have been created or modified for the purpose of disaster awareness and recovery but are now being used for other functions. I will also pull opinions from other bloggers and people I know who live in NYC and ultimately hope to prove in this blog that technology has not only improved disaster awareness and recovery in New York City, but that the R&D associated with these projects has actually improved the quality of technology.


I am currently writing from New York (I am in town for my nephew's one year birthday party) and plan to discuss this topic with my friends and relatives who currently live in NYC. It is my hope that they share my same opinion on this subject, but if not, I will have an opposing viewpoint to share when I return.

And on a final and non-related note, it just started snowing! :)